Economic Flash: Job Market, Consumer Spending Show Signs of Slowing

U.S. Economy: Less Optimism

While headline unemployment dipped to 3.5%, most indicators underscored labor market cooling. Among them: a drop in current job openings (to 8.8 million); fewer small businesses planning to hire (17%) and fewer people quitting their jobs (3.5 million in July), bringing each of these indicators to their lowest level since early 2021. Meanwhile, higher borrowing costs erased a summer spike in consumer confidence, the sharpest contraction in two years.

U.S. Stocks: Waiting on the Fed

U.S. equities fell modestly but stayed in the black for Q3 through August, with more economically sensitive small-cap stocks the weakest performers. Higher interest rates and tighter bank lending standards are now being felt more keenly by consumers and businesses. Consequently, investors are wary of another Fed interest rate hike, which may not happen in September, given recent Fed comments and weaker economic data.

Foreign Stocks: Concern About China

International equities have generally mirrored U.S. equity markets, with many economies facing similar challenges, including inflation. The outlier is China (-9.0%), which is facing capital outflows amid deflation, weaker growth, high levels of business/consumer debt, and structural youth unemployment. Conversely, India and Mexico seem to be early beneficiaries of the near- and friend-shoring trend we have been discussing for some time.

Fixed Income: Short Maturities Rule

Since May, interest rates have resumed their climb. The yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury note is nearly at the peak hit late last year (4.2%) amid expectations that the Fed will have to keep its target interest rate elevated for longer. With that backdrop, shorter maturity bonds and some higher-yielding corporate bonds outperformed, while arguably overvalued municipal bonds came back to earth somewhat.

Real Assets: Commodities Hold Up

As with equity markets, most types of real assets posted weak or negative returns in August. Commodities were the strongest relative performers, despite an environment characterized by global economic weakening: The energy subcomponent was up 2.4% on tighter crude oil supplies. On the fixed-income side of the asset class, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) fell given the rise in interest rates.

Alternatives: Riding the Turbulence

Hedge funds were among the strongest performers as both traditional stocks and bonds finished August in the red. Absolute return-oriented strategies (+0.7%) often perform well in environments with higher volatility, which was the case for the bulk of August. Market directional hedge funds (-0.5%) were an exception, although they remain the best-performing alt strategies so far in 2023, given strong global equity results.

Source of data: Bloomberg

Equities Total Returns

Fixed Income Total Returns

Economic Indicators

Our Take

The game of tug-of-war playing out in the economy and financial markets (contraction vs. expansion), which we have highlighted in recent commentaries, remained in stalemate in August, although an argument could be made that the forces of contraction gained a small amount of ground.

While consumer spending showed a robust increase in July over June (+0.8%), the data as we enter Fall make for a less rosy scenario, including: Cooling in the labor market and wage growth, which has been steadily falling from the multi-decade peak hit in June 2022, and deterioration in consumer confidence, something that materialized quite quickly.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (the Core PCE) has risen over the past two months at the slowest pace since 2020. That pace annualized would amount to U.S. inflation of 2.4%, close to the Fed’s target of 2% and a welcome respite from much higher inflation in 2022-early 2023. Still, the price paid for lower core inflation is often a weakening economy.

So far, the U.S. economy has avoided a drop-off in economic activity, as growth in services makes up for the sluggish manufacturing sector. Prior to August, the financial markets certainly benefited from consensus sentiment that a severe recession would be avoided. That said, the focus of investors continues to be how much the economy will slow down, given that the cost of credit for consumers and businesses is a key variable in economic growth.

Impact of Higher Rates

When interest rates rise steeply, as they have been since March 2022, borrowing money to spend or invest becomes more expensive, curbing economic growth. Look no further than mortgage rates. Two years ago, a $500,000 mortgage at 2.8% would have a monthly payment of $2,054. Today, that same mortgage at 7.5% would cost 70% more, or $3,496 a month.

While the impact on the housing market so far has been muted due to low supply, higher borrowing costs are hitting consumer auto and credit card payments and business lines of credit and other financing. Accelerating erosion in the creditworthiness of credit card holders was a key theme in recent earnings reports coming from many notable retailers.

Also, recent employment data indicate an increase in part-time work and people holding more than one job (double counting). Meanwhile, the average hours worked per week continues to fall. If you adjust for the contraction in the workweek, there has been no job growth at all this year, resulting in an unemployment rate that is closer to 4% than the 3.5% reported.

That we haven’t seen more substantial cooling is likely due to the extended era of low fixed interest rates on mortgages and personal credit, coupled with businesses’ high cash holdings. The impact of Fed policy plays out a bit like steering a boat rather than driving a Toyota Prius: You have to arrest your turn before you are pointed in the direction you want to go. Said another way, Fed policy always comes with a bit of lag.

What does this mean for investment portfolios? Well, it doesn’t mean that we are necessarily in an unfit environment for investment even if the economy does sour a bit from here. Our portfolios are built with client strategic objectives in mind and to withstand the ebbs and flows of the economy and financial markets.

This could be an opportune time, depending on your specific goals, objectives and risk tolerance, to rebalance public equity risk in favor of private equity, private credit, and/or hedge funds, all of which are currently among our strongest conviction allocations for long-term goal attainment. Our investment team is constantly surveying the landscape for timely opportunities, and it is often in the periods of uncertainty or volatility, and in the less travelled corners of financial markets, where we can source the most interesting new strategic positions.

Broadly, corporate credit of various types is an area we are watching closely. Specifically, we are monitoring debt strategies within the commercial real estate market, which is facing an evolution in the usage and demand for real estate alongside the aforementioned rise in financing costs. This includes the peripheral markets around bank lending, including CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) and private debt strategies, which are poised to fill the void created by tighter banking standards. Last but certainly not least, as we have been stating for some time, you are now (finally) getting compensated for owning investment-grade fixed income. Depending on the risk-return profile required to achieve your life goals, a higher allocation to fixed income for yield and stability could make sense.

Disclosures

All content presented on the Wetherby Asset Management LLC (“Wetherby”) website is for informational purposes only and is from sources believed to be reliable. No warranty is either expressed or implied by its presentation.

This content is not, and should not be, considered a recommendation, offer, nor solicitation of an offer by Wetherby or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security or other financial product; nor is it an endorsement or affirmation of any specific investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Information contained in third-party articles was prepared by independent outside parties, and the accuracy of any such information may have changed since the article was published. Unless otherwise specified, opinions expressed reflect those of the author and not of Wetherby. Wetherby does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of information in these articles and assumes no liability for damages resulting from or arising out of the use of such information. Should any specific funds or securities be mentioned in a third-party article, it may not be reflective of any funds or securities recommended by Wetherby, nor should it be considered an investment recommendation or investment advice. These investment strategies may or may not be appropriate to incorporate in our client portfolios. Wetherby’s analysis is subject to change as information develops regarding specific investment goals, profiles and/or the economic markets. Individual investments typically constitute a minority allocation within a client’s fully diversified portfolio managed by Wetherby.

Wetherby manages portfolios according to each client’s specific investment needs in accordance with a signed investment agreement. Therefore, each client’s portfolio has a unique set of circumstances and, consequently, investment results. Wetherby’s outlook may change if the client provides new information or if there are material changes in the market or investment recommendations. While Wetherby intends to add value to our clients in non-investment related areas of tax and financial planning, we do not hold ourselves out to be practicing income tax professionals or estate planning attorneys. You should consult your tax advisor and/or estate planning attorney for any legal or accounting needs.

To the extent that our website contains information about specific companies, securities and/or investment strategies – including whether they are profitable or not – it is provided only as a means of illustrating a potential investment thesis. It is not intended as a reflection of any securities or funds held by clients nor the experience of any client; the holdings and performance of which may be materially different from any investments discussed. It should not be assumed that any information contained serves as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Wetherby or an investment agreement.

If a reader has questions regarding the applicability of this information to her/his situation, she/he is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of her/his choosing. A copy of Wetherby’s current ADV Part 2 & 3 discussing our advisory services, fees and other relevant information is available upon request.

Certifications

Wetherby’s status as both a Certified B Corporation^® and a Certified San Francisco Green Business is indicative of our commitment to enhanced social, environmental and governance standards. It is not intended to represent Wetherby’s investment capabilities or performance. For additional details regarding Certified B Corporations^® please visit www.bcorporation.net; for San Francisco Green Business please visit www.sfenvironment.org/green-businesses.

Social Media

Social media content involving Wetherby and our affiliated people is intended solely for informational purposes. It should not be considered as a recommendation, investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation of services. Links to third-party content are provided for convenience only; Wetherby cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of the information and no warranty is either expressed or implied by its presentation. Neither Wetherby nor our affiliated people are responsible for any third-party content, services, products or information. Please note that as a registered investment advisory firm with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Wetherby and our affiliated people are restricted from using any form of testimonial relating to our investment advisory services. We appreciate your acknowledgments; however, our policy requires that we hide any recommendations or endorsements.

Cookie Policy

We use cookies and similar technologies on the Wetherby Asset Management LLC website. Cookies are bits of data that a website sends to a web browser on a visitor’s computer. Cookies help us and our third-party partners to collect information about you and other visitors to our website, including date and time of visit, pages viewed, amount of time spent on our sites, or general information about the device used to access the site.

In addition to cookies, certain additional data may be automatically collected from your device or web browser, including:

IP addresses, referrer headers, data identifying your web browser and version, social media pixels, web beacons, and tags.

Third parties may also collect information via our website through cookies, third-party plug-ins, and widgets. These third parties collect data directly from your web browser and may connect it to personally identifiable information. The processing of this data is subject to the privacy policies of these third-party vendors.

We use cookies and pixel tags to track the usage of our website to provide services to existing and prospective clients and improve their online experience. We also use cookies and pixel tags to obtain aggregate data about site traffic and site interaction, to identify trends, and to obtain statistics so that we can improve our site.